Trump ramps up pressure on Powell to slash rates to 1% even as the Fed holds at 3.50%–3.75%, lifts inflation forecasts, and warns the Iran oil shock risks stagflation.
Summary
- Trump renews attacks on Powell, demanding immediate cuts and even 1% rates despite Brent above $110 and inflation expectations rising with the Iran war energy shock.
- The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% and signals only one 2026 cut, with officials warning that oil-driven inflation could keep PCE near 3% and delay any easing.
- Economists say the U.S. now faces a classic stagflation trap, as cutting to appease Trump risks entrenching inflation while holding steady deepens demand destruction.
U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his public pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, stating that Powell should cut interest rates — a demand that stands in direct contradiction to the Fed’s posture just 24 hours earlier, when the central bank held rates unchanged and signaled it expects only one cut for the entirety of 2026.
Trump’s statement, reported by Jinshi on Thursday, follows a pattern of escalating attacks on the Fed chair that has intensified since the Iran war began on February 28. As recently as March 12, Trump took to Truth Social to write: “Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” The president has reportedly called for rates as low as 1%, even as soaring oil prices are pushing inflation expectations sharply higher.
Crypto markets have been trading this showdown in real time: Bitcoin has already slipped back below $70,000 after briefly tagging the mid‑$73,000s last week, while Ethereum has faded toward the low‑$2,200s as Fed funds futures price in barely a single cut for 2026 and the market starts to contemplate a “no‑cut” year. That leaves BTC caught between two narratives — a stagflation hedge if Powell caves to Trump and lets real yields fall, or just another high‑beta risk asset if the Fed digs in and higher-for-longer rates collide with an oil shock to crush liquidity across both TradFi and crypto.
The Fed voted to keep its benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range at its March 18 meeting, citing persistent uncertainty around both the Iran conflict’s economic impact and the residual effects of Trump’s 15% global tariff regime. Powell acknowledged that a rate hike remains unlikely but did not rule it out, noting that the Fed “will need to assess how enduring this situation is” in reference to the global energy crisis.
The Fed’s updated forecasts are expected to revise inflation projections upward, with many economists anticipating the central bank will now forecast inflation remaining as high as 3% by late 2026 — a level difficult to reconcile with rate cuts. Trump’s own nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his term concludes in May had been expected to usher in a more dovish era, but the Iran conflict may delay or complicate that transition.
The core tension is acute. Trump wants lower rates to stimulate a slowing economy and support financial markets battered by oil-driven uncertainty. But the Fed faces a classic stagflation dilemma: cutting rates risks entrenching oil-fueled inflation, while holding or hiking risks amplifying the demand destruction already underway as energy costs squeeze consumers and businesses.
CME FedWatch data shows markets assigning over 99% probability to no change at the current meeting, and Wall Street economists are increasingly calling for a zero-cut year. Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Lydia Boussour noted that “given our elevated forecasts for headline and core PCE inflation, we have adjusted our baseline to reflect only one 25 basis point cut in 2026 — but it is entirely plausible the Fed won’t implement any rate cuts this year.”
The oil shock has already erased the inflation buffer that lower energy prices had provided earlier in 2026 in the face of Trump’s tariffs. With Brent crude above $110 and Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure widening on Thursday, the Fed’s margin for maneuver is narrowing — even as Trump’s demands grow louder.